What percentage of potentially-life-supporting planets develop life at some point?

Prediction market on manifold. This market will be used to calculate fl for the Manifold Solves the Drake Equation project. You can read more about the Drake Equation [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation). Buy YES to increase percentage and NO to decrease percentage. 100% indicates all potentially-life-supporting planets will develop life, 0% indicates no potentially-life-supporting planets will develop life. For clarity, this refers to any life form including bacteria and single-celled organisms. This market is intended to not resolve and functions as a stock ticker tracking the current scientific consensus. It will close intermittently to allow for easy tracking of project and reopen once recordings are taken. If a solid scientific consensus is held over a significant period of time (multiple decades) then it may resolve to the percentage of that consensus.

24h Volume: $26.57. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 6/15/2026.