What percentage of planets with life will develop intelligent life (civilisation)?

Prediction market on manifold. This market will be used to calculate fi for the Manifold Solves the Drake Equation project. You can read more about the Drake Equation (here)[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation]. Buy YES to increase percentage and NO to decrease percentage. 100% indicates all planets with life will develop at least one intelligent life form, 0% indicates no planets with life will develop at least one intelligent life form. This market is intended to not resolve and functions as a stock ticker tracking the current scientific consensus. It will close intermittently to allow for easy tracking of project and reopen once recordings are taken. If a solid scientific consensus is held over a significant period of time (multiple decades) then it may resolve to the percentage of that consensus.

24h Volume: $45. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 6/15/2026.