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Prediction market on manifold. Background At the end of 2024, 85% of US adult citizens believed Donald Trump legitimately won the 2024 US presidential election, according to YouGov, while 15% did not. Resolution criteria This market will resolve YES if at least 90% of US adults believe the president inaugurated on 20 January 2029 legitimately won the 2028 US presidential election. This market will resolve NO if more than 10% of US adults believe the president inaugurated on 20 January 2029 did not legitimately win the 2028 US presidential election. Clarifications This market will resolve according to the most recently published YouGov poll to ask this question (or one with a substantially similar meaning) at the end of February 2029. The poll must have been conducted after the 2028 US presidential election, though not necessarily after the inauguration. If no such poll is published in the time between the election and the close date, the market may be voided. Non-committal survey responses (e.g. "not sure") will be excluded for the purpose of this market. A poll of registered voters will be sufficient for this market, although a poll of adults or adult citizens is preferred. I may trade in this market. If I believe the resolution of this market is likely to be contentious, I will either sell my shares or entrust a Manifold mod with resolving the market.
24h Volume: $305. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 2/28/2029.