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Prediction market on manifold. This question is basically a cross-product of https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-obtains-nuclear-weapon-by-2030/ and https://manifold.markets/BaryLevy/will-the-government-of-the-islamic-9R2hcIEElO Update 2025-06-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they will make no personal judgement calls on this market's resolution. It will be resolved strictly in line with the linked markets. As a result, the creator has indicated they will be betting on this market themselves.
24h Volume: $19.225. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2029.