Which AI future will we get?

Prediction market on manifold. Based on Scott Aaronson's Five Worlds of AI. I will try my best to resolve the market in the future, but realistically this is as much an opinion poll as a prediction market. I will use the market probabilities as a Schelling point for how to resolve it, but I may deviate from them if I judge that they are mistaken or manipulated. If none of them apply, the market resolves to the closest option I can round it to. If we have an edge case, the market may resolve to a PROB mixture.

24h Volume: $144.304. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2150.