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Prediction market on manifold. Minor changes to the name, such as 'Qwen 4.0', or other names for a model generally expected to be called Qwen 4, will count for the purpose of this market. The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution. See also: @NU2IyqRq0u @LhlNpLyA2h @8AyI5Np5yl @OchSUnInIq (this market) @cgl2IP0yIC @cstO2OAIhZ @LU5RqqqEuA @t5Eh629zRE @2OzL6Q56y8 @IZO2UZgUNO @2CqdhIO9cU @6SLuEUSN2g
24h Volume: $100. Liquidity: $1,300. Resolves: 7/1/2026.