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Prediction market on manifold. Revised Resolution Criteria: This market will resolve after the end date of December 31, 2030. The resolution process will be as follows: Identify Failed Companies: First, a list will be compiled of all companies that have met any of the "go bust" criteria (defined below) between October 1, 2025, and December 31, 2030. Determine the 'Biggest': From that list, the "biggest" will be identified as the company that achieved the highest peak valuation after October 1, 2025. Resolution: The market will resolve to the name of that single "biggest" company listed. If no major AI company meets the "go bust" criteria by the end date, the market will resolve to None Definition of 'Biggest' A company's size is determined by its peak valuation achieved between October 1, 2025, and the date it meets a 'go bust' criterion. For public companies, this is their highest market capitalization reached at any point during this period. For private companies, this is the highest post-money valuation from any funding round that closed during this period. Definition of 'Go Bust' The criteria for a company to be considered "bust" are based on absolute events or a collapse from their standing at the start of the market. the Question Author reserves the right to Resolve based on the best information available and reported publicly that he can find Part 1: Criteria for Publicly Traded Companies Formal Insolvency: Files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy (or an equivalent). Involuntary Delisting: Is involuntarily delisted from a major stock exchange for financial reasons. Fire-Sale Acquisition: Is acquired for a value less than 20% of its market capitalization at it's peak. Sustained Value Collapse: Its market capitalization remains below 10% of its peak value for a continuous 180-day period. Part 2: Criteria for Private Companies Formal Insolvency or Shutdown: Files for bankruptcy, initiates an Assignment for the Benefit of Creditors (ABC), or ceases primary business operations. Massive Down Round: Closes a new funding round with a valuation less than 20% of its peak valuation. Fire-Sale Acquisition: Is acquired for a value less than 20% of its peak valuation . Effective Dissolution: Enters a public wind-down process outside of formal bankruptcy.
24h Volume: $44.775. Liquidity: $1,200. Resolves: 1/1/2031.