Will a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number by 2026?

Prediction market on manifold. Background: A 2019 paper showed the IBM Q System One was able to factor 15 and 21, but unable to factor 35 due to accumulating errors. Will a quantum computer factor a number greater than 31 by 2026? Must use a non-classical algorithm like Quantum Fourier Transform/Shor's Algorithm to count, and without pre-compilation. Update 2026-01-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on whether a quantum computer factors a number greater than 31 by the end of 2026 (not before 2026 begins).

24h Volume: $280.499. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2026.