Will there be any successful manned mission to Mars launched by any country/private company by 2040 ?

Prediction market on manifold. In this NASA article https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/humans-to-mars/, and this interview by Elon Musk talking about SpaceX plans https://www.npr.org/2022/03/17/1087167893/elon-musk-mars-2029 express their dedication to advancing technologies for human missions to Mars. NASA underscores its commitment to developing new technologies on its official website, while Elon Musk hints at a manned mission to Mars in 2029 during an interview. These statements indicate a shared interest in sending manned missions to the Red Planet. Will any of them be successful by the end of 2040 ? the mission would be considered successful by the following criteria : Safe Arrival: The spacecraft carrying the astronauts safely lands on the surface of Mars without any major incidents or malfunctions. Human Survival: The crew members are able to survive and function effectively on the Martian surface for the planned duration of the mission, which could range from weeks to months. Scientific Exploration: The mission accomplishes its scientific objectives, which may include conducting experiments, collecting samples, and gathering data to further our understanding of Mars and its potential for supporting life. Technological Advancement: The mission demonstrates advancements in space travel technology, such as propulsion systems, life support systems, and habitat construction techniques, that can be applied to future missions. Return Journey: The astronauts safely return to Earth, bringing back valuable data, samples, and insights gained from their mission on Mars.

24h Volume: $137.732. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/16/2040.