Will the real US GDP grow more than 5% per year in any year before 2030?

Prediction market on manifold. This question will be resolved based on official U.S. economic data, focusing specifically on annual real GDP growth (adjusted for inflation). The question will resolve as “Yes” if real GDP growth for any full calendar year exceeds 5% between the years 2024 and 2029, inclusive. Otherwise, it will resolve as “No” if no such year exhibits this level of growth by the end of 2029. Specific Criteria 1. Data Source: • The resolution will use official data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) or another recognized authoritative economic body. The relevant statistic is the “Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Annual Percentage Growth Rate.” • Data will be taken from the initial report and/or any official subsequent revisions. If the final revised data shows growth above 5%, this will determine the resolution outcome. 2. Growth Measurement: • Annual Growth Rate: Real GDP growth will be measured as the percentage change in GDP from one calendar year to the next, calculated using the BEA’s inflation-adjusted figures to represent “real” growth. • For the purposes of this question, quarterly or intra-year growth rates are irrelevant; only the full calendar year’s annual growth rate will be considered. 3. Threshold of 5%: • Real GDP growth must exceed 5.0% to resolve as “Yes.” Growth exactly at 5.0% does not meet the threshold and would be treated as a “No.” 4. Timing of Resolution: • If the BEA reports (including any final revisions) indicate a year with real GDP growth above 5% at any time before 2030, the question will resolve as “Yes” at that time. • If no such year has growth exceeding 5% by the end of 2029, the question will resolve as “No” in early 2030 after the BEA’s final data for 2029 has been published.

24h Volume: $50. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/1/2030.