Will OpenAI go public NOT via an IPO?

Prediction market on manifold. Background OpenAI is a leading AI developer (GPT family of models) organized as OpenAI, L.L.C. and related entities. It has raised large private funding and engaged in discussions about public-market options. “Going public” can occur via routes other than a traditional underwritten registered IPO — for example, a direct listing, SPAC merger (de‑SPAC), or a merger/acquisition that results in OpenAI equity (or equity of the legal entity representing OpenAI’s primary AI business) becoming listed and tradable on public exchanges. Question (short description) Will OpenAI become a publicly listed company through a non‑IPO route (direct listing, SPAC/de‑SPAC merger, or merger/going‑public via a public company acquisition) by 11:59:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026? Target: OpenAI, Inc., OpenAI, L.L.C., or any legal entity whose equity represents OpenAI’s primary AI business/operating entity. Included non‑IPO routes: direct listing, SPAC merger (including reverse merger into a blank‑check company and completion of de‑SPAC), or merger/acquisition that results in OpenAI equity being listed and publicly tradable. Excluded: a traditional underwritten registered IPO (Form S‑1 or equivalent primary offering). Secondary listings, debt issuances, or minority stake sales that do not produce publicly listed OpenAI equity are excluded. Resolution criteria (binary: YES / NO) Resolve YES if, on or before 2026‑12‑31 23:59:59 UTC, there is verifiable public evidence that OpenAI’s equity (or equity of the legal entity representing OpenAI’s primary AI business) became listed and tradable on any public exchange as a result of one of the non‑IPO routes defined above. Acceptable evidence (any one): Exchange notice or listing announcement from a recognized public exchange (e.g., NASDAQ, NYSE, LSE, HKEX, Euronext) stating OpenAI (or the named listed vehicle representing OpenAI) is listed and the method is a direct listing, SPAC/de‑SPAC, or merger listing; OR Filing with a securities regulator (e.g., SEC Form 8‑K, 6‑K, S‑4/A, or local regulator filings) explicitly showing completion of a SPAC/de‑SPAC transaction, direct listing, or merger that results in OpenAI equity becoming publicly listed and traded; OR A definitive press release or regulatory announcement from OpenAI and the counterparty (SPAC sponsor, exchange, or acquiring public company) confirming completion of the non‑IPO transaction and that OpenAI equity is listed and available for public trading, corroborated by at least one independent reputable financial news source (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg, WSJ, FT, CNBC). Resolve NO if, by 2026‑12‑31 23:59:59 UTC, none of the above evidence exists and OpenAI has not completed a non‑IPO route to become publicly listed. If OpenAI goes public via a traditional underwritten IPO (Form S‑1 primary IPO) by the deadline, resolve NO. Notes and edge cases (short) Do not resolve YES for deals that file paperwork but are abandoned before shares trade publicly; shares must be listed and tradable. If OpenAI’s business is absorbed into a public company without issuance of distinct publicly traded OpenAI equity or ticker (pure asset sale into the acquirer), resolve NO. If corporate restructurings or name changes occur, resolve based on substance: if the publicly tradable equity represents OpenAI’s continuing primary AI business, it counts.

24h Volume: $150. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/7/2026.