What will I be diagnosed with?

Prediction market on manifold. Resolution criteria This market will resolve based on formal diagnoses provided by a licensed healthcare professional (e.g., psychiatrist, psychologist). Conditions not formally diagnosed by the time this market closes will resolve to "NO." A condition resolves to "YES" as soon as I am formally diagnosed, even if the diagnosis is later contested. My background General Profile: 28-year-old male, holder of an Engineering degree (2021). Currently pursuing a Master’s degree in Education Sciences. Current Diagnostic Status: Reason for Consultation (Autism): I initiated a diagnostic evaluation at the Student Health Service with Dr. Simon in April 2025 specifically to investigate a possible Autism Spectrum Disorder. Clinical observations noted atypical social communication traits (masking, social fatigue, difficulties with eye contact) and focused interests in statistics and classifications (e.g., poker stats, car rankings). There is a relevant family history as my older brother is diagnosed with autism. ADHD & Medication: A second psychiatrist, Dr. Bonaiti, currently suspects ADHD and has prescribed Methylphenidate (Ritalin). However, she has not issued a formal diagnosis yet, as she is awaiting the final evaluation from Dr. Simon. A follow-up appointment with Dr. Simon is scheduled for April 30, 2026. Sleep Disorders: A polysomnography (January 2026) confirmed Moderate Obstructive Sleep Apnea Syndrome (OSAS) with an AHI (Apnea-Hypopnea Index) of 19.5 and 22 micro-arousals per hour. I have been equipped with a medical device (CPAP machine) since March 6, 2026, to treat this condition. Mental Health & History: Depressive Episodes: Documentation of recurrent periods of deep sadness and lethargy since high school (notably in 2017, 2019, 2021, and 2024-2025). "The Great Void": A recurring physical sensation of intense existential anxiety, typically felt in the chest, triggered by thoughts of infinity or death. Social Anxiety: Persistent fear of judgment from others since age 8, leading to exhaustive social hyper-vigilance ("extreme consciousness" of movements and speech). Addictive Behaviors: History of behavioral dependency on screens (YouTube, video games) and regular use of alcohol, described as a "blue pill" to cope with reality. Physical & Sensory Observations: Sensory Sensitivities: Discomfort with bright lights, difficulty following group conversations in noisy environments, and high dietary rigidity (almost exclusive consumption of pasta with parmesan for 10 years). Pain & Hyperlaxity: Frequent joint cracking since childhood (wrists, knees, elbows) and chronic localized pains. Notably high pain tolerance (e.g., three broken ribs without immediate pain upon palpation). Current Treatments: Vortioxetine (Brintellix): 15mg daily since November 2025 for depression/anxiety. Methylphenidate (Ritalin): 10mg daily. Started in March 2026. Here is a chronological biography written by ai to give you more info: 1997 – 2006: Childhood and Early Masking Tristan was born on 1997, in France. His early childhood was defined by neighborhood football and school success, though he found the "obvious" social rules of the world difficult to grasp. A pivotal trauma occurred in 2006 when his family moved to Ardèche. Transitioning from a private school to a public one, he developed a deep shame and began lying to "appear normal" and avoid judgment. This period marked the beginning of his exhaustive social hyper-vigilance, or masking. 2007 – 2015: Adolescence Tristan spent his adolescence cultivating solitary interests, including fantasy literature (Eragon, Ewilan) and seven years of guitar practice undertaken without passion. Despite a growing "phobia of effort" and boredom with school, he obtains his Baccalauréat in 2015 with 12/20. He then chose the "royal road" suggested by his father—engineering school (ECAM Lyon)—without a personal desire to be an engineer. 2015 – 2021: Engineering The preparatory years were an "ordeal of exhaustion" resulting in a two-week depression in 2017. In 2018, an exchange year in Chile (Concepción) provided a brief escape and sense of autonomy. After struggling through internships at Bouygues and Engie, he realized he could not function in that profession's formal social environment. He graduated as an engineer in 2021 after the lockdown. 2022 – 2023: Radical Choices and Academic Reframing Tristan taught physics at a high school in 2022; while he enjoyed teaching, the social charge was "extenuating". At 24, he underwent a vasectomy, a radical act rooted in his nihilistic desire not to pass on his genes and perceived suffering to future generations. In 2023, following a second trip to Chile, he pivoted his career path, enrolling in a Master’s in Education Sciences at Lyon 2 with the goal of becoming a researcher. 2024 – 2026: The Path to Diagnosis In early 2024, Tristan entered a period of severe lethargy and chronic depression. On February 24, 2025, after seeing content regarding neurodivergence, he realized he was autistic. This led him to begin a diagnostic evaluation at the Student Health Service. He discovered his life-long passion for lists and classifications (e.g., spending thousands of hours on football stats, car rankings, and Excel tables) was a manifestation of his neurotype. In early 2026, Dr. Bonaiti suspected ADHD and prescribed 10mg of Methylphenidate (Ritalin) as a therapeutic trial, pending the formal written conclusion from the primary psychiatric evaluation. Shortly after, he was diagnosed with Moderate Sleep Apnea (AHI 19.5) and began using a CPAP device on March 6.

24h Volume: $136.939. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 10/22/2040.