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Prediction market on manifold. Either joining the same company, starting one together or other method of being in the same organization. The minimum participation level is "working". Participation levels that don't count: Funding Board seat For Elon, it being any of his companies counts. If the working together is at another company then they both must meet the following; if it's at a current-day or future Elon founded company, then only Andrej has to meet this standard: They both have to be a member of the org and doing work at the same time. Work means at least two days a week in general spending their time advancing the work of the organization as they should, in an organized way, and this must be overlapping time (in terms of dates of total employment) for them. Orgs that count Company - for profit or not Vc group Organization - lobbying group, research, think tanks University - for example as founders, teachers, researchers Starting a music school that uses AI Etc. where they both do things at least partially related to their fame. Orgs that don't count Totally unrelated things like sports clubs, reading groups on non ai / etc things, church membership Intermittent work recording online lessons for Khan academy In different companies but both receive investments from same VC Resolution Can resolve YES early or NO early, but it has to actually start and them be doing work not just a plan for later Criteria Public announcements, or other unquestioned statements that it is happening, basically I'll try to determine if it really is happening using all available methods, and then judge based on that
24h Volume: $5. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 6/30/2026.