Will a case of Bundibugyo Ebola disease be first confirmed in the US before 2027?

Prediction market on metaculus. On 16 May 2026, the WHO Director-General [declared](https://www.who.int/news/item/17-05-2026-epidemic-of-ebola-disease-in-the-democratic-republic-of-the-congo-and-uganda-determined-a-public-health-emergency-of-international-concern) the outbreak of Ebola disease caused by [Bundibugyo virus (BVD)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bundibugyo_ebolavirus) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. On May 17, WHO reported 8 laboratory-confirmed cases, 246 suspected cases, and 80 suspected deaths in Ituri Province, DRC, alongside two confirmed cases (including one death) in Kampala, Uganda. At least one American national in the DRC has reportedly tested positive, and US authorities have invoked a public health law to [limit entry from the affected region](https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html). There are no licensed vaccines or therapeutics specific to Bundibugyo virus. The two previously identified BVD outbreaks (Uganda 2007, DRC 2012) did not produce cases outside Africa. During the [2014–2016 Zaire ebolavirus epidemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_African_Ebola_epidemic) in West Africa, four cases were diagnosed on US soil and several infected American healthcare workers were medically evacuated to US facilities for treatment.

Resolves: 6/18/2026.