Loading
Prediction market on manifold. README: Each answer will resolve to a percent as they happen, starting with 1% for the first event and working upwards: 1st event: 1% (happens soonest) 2nd event: 2% (happens next) ... 100th event: 100% (happens latest) If there is only one unresolved answer left, it will be resolved to 100% YES even if that event does not actually happen, since we could we waiting for a very long time. If there is a renumbering or new product (eg. the next Civilization game after 6 is named something else) I'll update the answers the best I can in the spirit of the question, a lot will change over 100+ years. If an option becomes impossible, ask and I'll try to clarify in the answer text. If it cannot be done in a good way, we'll NA that option. For the future mods that have to deal with this good luck. Update 2025-05-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * Options related to Monthly Active Users (MAU) are being removed from the market due to changes in the relevant statistics. Update 2025-10-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "USA discontinues or changes penny coin": This will resolve when penny production ceases, which is expected to occur in early 2026 when the remaining penny blanks run out. Update 2025-10-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "USA discontinues or changes penny coin": This will resolve when penny production ceases, which is expected to occur in early 2026 when the remaining penny blanks run out.
24h Volume: $20. Liquidity: $19,785. Resolves: 1/2/2120.