In which year will global warming reach 1.5 degrees Celsius?

Prediction market on manifold. This market will resolve according to the Global surface temperature chart on Wikipedia’s English page on Climate Change. Specifically, the market will resolve to the year in which the red line in the chart (’20-year-smoothing’) first reaches 1.5 degrees Celsius. This approach aligns with the IPCC definition of the 1.5 degree target. Should the chart be no longer available on Wikipedia, the market will resolve using another neutral source that tracks average long-term warming compared to pre-industrial temperatures.

24h Volume: $7.724. Liquidity: $1,900. Resolves: 12/31/2040.