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Prediction market on manifold. This market will resolve to YES if the following three statements are true: 1. Republicans have lost or will lose the Senate 2. Alito has not left his post. 3. Alito leaves his post by resignation, retirement, or death before the senators are seated. The market will resolve to NO if the following three statements are true: 1. Republicans have lost or will lose the Senate 2. Alito has not left his post. 3. Alito does not leave his post by resignation, retirement, or death before the senators are seated. IMPORTANT RULE: If the probability in this market is above 75% at the time of resignation, this will be taken to satisfy the criteria in (1) https://manifold.markets/deleted007/will-democrats-control-both-the-hou-h5pyQIsQOU I realize the market says both Houses but the probability of a Dem win in the Senate and a Rep win in the House is negligible. So for example if the probability in this market is 80% on October 10th and Alito says he will step down, this market resolves YES. All other cases resolve N/A. Update 2026-04-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Alito announces early that he will step down later, resolution is based on the probability of the linked market at the time of announcement
24h Volume: $104.303. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/3/2027.