Will Nancy Guthrie be located (alive or deceased) before May 31, 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. Nancy Guthrie, 84, mother of NBC "Today" co-host Savannah Guthrie, has been missing since February 1, 2026 from her home in the Catalina Foothills, north of Tucson, Arizona. The Pima County Sheriff's Department (PCSD) and FBI are treating the case as a suspected abduction. Doorbell footage released on February 10, 2026 showed a masked man approaching her home the night she disappeared; investigators reported evidence of a struggle and a back door propped open. Nancy has significant medical issues and limited mobility, and family members say she rarely went beyond her home and backyard. Investigators have received cryptocurrency ransom demands by email and a number of letters that, in at least some cases, have been deemed hoaxes. A $1 million reward has been offered. As of May 16, 2026 — roughly 105 days after the disappearance — there have been no publicly announced arrests, no named suspects, and no publicly announced proof of life since February 1. Former FBI agents quoted in media coverage have said that finding her alive at this stage would be "nothing short of a miracle," though law enforcement has not publicly characterized the case as a recovery rather than rescue operation. A widely-publicized April 2026 PCSD social-media post that briefly stated "Nancy has been located" was later clarified to refer to a different missing person. `{"format": "llm_question", "info": {"rating": {"quality": 3, "ambiguity": 4, "resolvability": 4, "passes": true}}}`

Resolves: 5/31/2026.