Will Tadej Pogacar win the Tour de France a record-breaking 6 times?

Prediction market on manifold. The record for number of Tour de France victories is currently a four-way tie at five victories, between Jacques Anquetil, Eddy Merckx, Bernard Hinault, and Miguel Indurain. (Lance Armstrong won the Tour seven times, but all of his victories were later stripped by the UCI after his doping conviction.) Resolves YES if Tadej Pogacar wins the general classification (yellow jersey) of the Tour de France six times. All of his previous victories must be considered valid by the UCI by the time of his sixth victory. Resolves NO if Pogacar retires without having won the Tour de France general classification six times. As of the conclusion of the 2025 Tour de France, Pogacar has won four times (2020, 2021, 2024, 2025).

24h Volume: $100. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/1/2036.