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Prediction market on manifold. Resolves each threshold based on the peak valuation for OpenAI credibly reported with an as-of date on or before 2026-09-30. Pre-IPO: valuation is set by primary funding rounds, tender offers, or IPO pricing. Secondary transactions between existing investors do not count — they reflect individual trades, not company-endorsed valuation events. Post-IPO: valuation = peak market cap between IPO and 2026-09-30 (highest closing share price × shares outstanding at that time). ≥$X resolves YES as soon as such a figure meets or exceeds $X; remaining thresholds resolve NO at close. Sources. Company announcements; SEC filings (S-1, 424B, 10-Q, 10-K); major financial press (The Information, Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ). Post-IPO market cap is public daily via standard market data. A single credible report is sufficient to resolve a threshold YES if not contradicted. Analyst estimates do not trigger resolution. See also: @/Bayesian/openai-highest-valuation-by-end-of-2lnAgSs6st (this market) @/Bayesian/openai-highest-valuation-by-end-of @/Bayesian/openai-highest-valuation-by-end-of-hZtdnzp2O2 @/Bayesian/openai-highest-valuation-by-end-of-0p5ULUEzzq @/Bayesian/openai-highest-valuation-by-end-of-hR0N5nCsc0 @/Bayesian/openai-highest-valuation-by-end-of-c5l05OPIzU @/Bayesian/openai-highest-valuation-by-end-of-RzAhzQO6CO @/Bayesian/anthropic-highest-valuation-by-end-sLNqnZzNQg @/Bayesian/spacex-highest-valuation-by-end-of-tOLZp0UZ0C @/Bayesian/openai-highest-annualized-revenue-r-REAzAN5ElN
24h Volume: $337.768. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 10/1/2026.