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Prediction market on manifold. The impetus for this market is asking whether Elon Musk is correct in rejecting lidar sensors for self-driving. FAQ 1. Did the Tesla robotaxis in Austin in summer 2025 count? No, even if we decide those were level 4, we need wider deployment (see next FAQ item) than that to count for this market. 2. How wide is "widely deployed"? 100 million autonomous miles, with zero fatalities that are the fault of the AI. 3. Is this specific to Tesla? No, but I don't know of anyone else attempting vision-only level 4 self-driving. So effectively yes, so far. But just in case, in the very unlikely event that Waymo drops all their fancy sensors before Tesla makes this work, that could still be a YES. [ignore all the AI-generated clarifications below this line; nothing is official until added to the FAQ above]
24h Volume: $13.333. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/1/2034.