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Prediction market on manifold. They have to surpass Magnus on the list for at least 30 days. http://ratings.fide.com/ If Magnus is not in the list then he is surpassed, as long as the list still exists. The list appears to be updated very frequently. No end date.
24h Volume: $99.214. Liquidity: $1,050. Resolves: 1/1/2031.