What year will someone surpass Magnus Carlsen on the list of Top Rated FIDE players?
Prediction market on manifold. They have to surpass Magnus on the list for at least 30 days. http://ratings.fide.com/ If Magnus is not in the list then he is surpassed, as long as the list still exists. The list appears to be updated very frequently. No end date.
24h Volume: $2,390. Liquidity: $1,050. Resolves: 1/1/2031.