Who will win the Russia-Ukraine War?

Prediction market on manifold. Will Resolve by 2030, or sooner if it becomes clear that one side has achieved the victory conditions. Resolves Ukraine if Ukraine manages to retake and defend the majority of lands captured by Russia as of December 2023. Resolves Russia if Russia manages to capture and defend half of all pre-war Ukrainian land. Resolves Stalemate if neither of these conditions occur by 2030.

24h Volume: $45. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/23/2030.