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Prediction market on manifold. Resolution Criteria This market will resolve as to given interval from of months from the the 1 of January 2025 when the English Wikipedia page on the Russo-Ukrainian War (or the closest equivalent, should the page no longer exist) lists the war as having ended and is not involved in an edit war (i.e no edits regarding the status for 10 days) If I believe there is no edit war even tough the status has been edit within the 10 days after 20 days of a edit war, I will consult two free-to-use LLMs that have internet access and are at the top of the Hugging Face arena leaderboard. If the Hugging Face arena leaderboard does not exist, I will search for "Best LLM right now" and select the two recommended as the "best", with due caution. I will make a unanimous decision with the LLMs regarding whether the war has ended. If not, I will have to wait for n! days, where n is the number of questions asked, and n! denotes the factorial of n, to consult the LLMs again.
24h Volume: $30.224. Liquidity: $10,000. Resolves: 2/1/2027.