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Prediction market on manifold. The resolution is based on my subjective assessment of his public statements, and I will not trade in this market. Resolution criteria This market resolves YES if, in my judgment, Newsom uses strongly anti-AI rhetoric in public remarks on social media or in speeches and debates before March 2, 2028. "Strongly anti-AI" means rhetoric that goes substantially beyond his current position of supporting responsible AI development—such as calling for major restrictions on AI development, characterizing AI as primarily a threat rather than an opportunity, or advocating for policies that would significantly constrain the AI industry. Casual criticism of specific AI applications or calls for narrow guardrails would not qualify, and the positions he takes must be consistent throughout multiple remarks (an offhand comment once wouldn't count). Background Newsom stated in October 2025 that after the 2026 midterm elections, he would give "serious thought" to running in 2028. 55% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents say they'd consider voting for Newsom in a 2028 Democratic primary, making him a leading contender. Newsom's current AI stance emphasizes responsible development rather than opposition. Following his September 2024 veto of SB-1047, Newsom pursued a "lighter touch" framework with SB-53, which takes a more flexible approach to AI regulation. Newsom stated the bill he signed "strikes that balance" between community safety and AI industry growth. California is home to 32 of the 50 top AI companies worldwide, and in 2024, 15.7% of all U.S. AI job postings were in California. Considerations The Democratic primary electorate shows a generational divide on AI. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads among young Democratic voters in a hypothetical 2028 primary with a double-digit lead over Newsom and Harris. This could create pressure on Newsom to shift his messaging toward younger, more progressive voters who are more skeptical of AI. Update 2025-12-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator considers Bernie Sanders' current position on AI to be "strongly anti-AI" based on statements like "I think you have got to slow this process down" and calling for a moratorium on new data centers. If Newsom made similar statements for an extended period of time, this market would resolve YES.
24h Volume: $3.371. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 3/1/2028.