If the Texas GOP succeeds in redistricting, will they gain seats in the midterms?

Prediction market on manifold. Resolution criteria This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by November 3, 2026, the Texas Legislature enacts new congressional district maps AND gains seats in Congress. The market will resolve “No” if the Texas Legislature enacts new congressional maps, but loses seats or maintains the same number. The market will resolve to "NA" if no such redistricting occurs by that date. Background In July 2025, President Donald Trump urged Texas Republicans to redraw the state's congressional maps to create five additional GOP-favored districts, aiming to bolster the party's majority in the U.S. House ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Governor Greg Abbott responded by adding redistricting to a special legislative session agenda. Democrats are vulnerable because unlike Texas, Democratic strongholds typically have independent redistricting commissions to ensure nonpartisan districts. (apnews.com) Texas Republicans currently hold 25 of the state's 38 congressional seats. The proposed redistricting targets districts like that of Democrat Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in the Rio Grande Valley. The current districts are already being challenged under the Voting Rights act for diluting minority rule. Mid-decade redistricting is unprecedented, as is such extreme and blatant partisanship in creating voting districts. Ordinarily districts are redrawn once every ten years to reflect changes in the state population as recorded in the Census. Some are speculating that further aggressive gerrymandering in Texas amounts to “dummymandering” that could backfire by galvanizing people into turning out and toppling GOP incumbents in redrawn districts that didn’t elect them.

24h Volume: $5,000. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 11/8/2026.