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Prediction market on manifold. The final is July 19 2026 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford NJ. Kickoff 3:00 PM ET. Capacity 82,500. Going-in numbers as of May 2026: Cheapest face-value general-public seat (Cat 4) runs around $2,030 plus a 15% FIFA fee FIFA Resale Marketplace floor sits around $10k Tickets are mobile-only via the FIFA World Cup 2026 app The official Ticket Transfer feature shuts down 1 hour before kickoff A $60 Supporter Entry Tier exists but is gated behind national-association loyalty status The access problem: MetLife on matchday is a fortress. No on-site general parking. Walking to the stadium is illegal under NJ state law and police will redirect pedestrians. The Meadowlands Rail shuttle from Penn Station and Secaucus is restricted to ticket holders. American Dream Mall parking is ticket-holder-only and already sold out for the final. FIFA's outer security perimeter exists specifically to keep ticketless people away from the gates. The "scalper in the parking lot" archetype does not exist here. The play: I or a designated friend works whatever matchday choke point offers the best shot at finding a last-minute desperate seller. Penn Station before the shuttle. Secaucus Junction shuttle platform. American Dream Mall walkway. Anywhere ticket holders gather before passing the FIFA outer perimeter. The exact location gets picked day-of based on observed crowd patterns and any new info on enforcement. Three plausible mechanisms: Guest-ticket entry. FIFA explicitly allows a primary account holder to walk in with guests on his phone through the same entrance. Someone holding a spare ticket whose plus-one bailed can take my cash, board the shuttle with me as his guest and walk me through every checkpoint between Penn Station and his seat. No transfer paperwork, FIFA-sanctioned in their own FAQ. Credential transfer. The FIFA app authenticates with email plus a 6-digit code. A scalper hands me his login on the spot, I see the QR on my phone, I scan in. Mechanically works. FIFA could detect anomalous login and void the ticket before scan, but enforcement at scale is hard. A trustworthy-enough online solution is available. Perhaps someone will vibecode an app that holds FIFA mobile accounts "in escrow". Resolves YES if all hold I, or a friend acting as designated proxy, arrive at a matchday access point with a notable concentration of ticket holders bound for the final (Penn Station shuttle queue, Secaucus Junction matchday platform, American Dream Mall walkway, the stadium gates or any equivalent gathering point), no earlier than 1:30 PM ET on July 19 2026, holding no valid ticket Between arrival and the start of the second half, I/proxy obtain a ticket through any means: cash to a stranger, guest-entry on someone else's account, credential transfer, last-minute FIFA release, FIFA Resale Marketplace, StubHub/SeatGeek/Vivid Seats or any other online platform Total cash out the door is strictly under $500 USD. This includes ticket price plus all fees, taxes and transfer charges. Foreign currency converts at the spot rate at time of purchase. Free gifts from strangers count as $0 The QR scans at every required checkpoint and I/proxy walks into the stadium before the start of the second half Any seat is fine. Nosebleed, obstructed view, standing room, whatever Resolves NO if I/proxy attempts the strategy but cannot land a sub-$500 ticket in time I/proxy obtains a sub-$500 ticket but it gets voided, fails to scan or is otherwise refused at any checkpoint for any reason whatsoever (counterfeit, fraud detection, ID mismatch, already-scanned barcode, security, intoxication, dress code, you name it) Resolves N/A if Neither I nor any friend attempts this on July 19 2026 The final gets rescheduled by more than 6 hours, relocated or cancelled Notes A friend's ticket bought months in advance and handed over for free does not count. This market is about last-minute clearing-price liquidity at matchday access points, not pre-arranged transfers among people I know. "Cash out the door" includes Venmo, Zelle, crypto, whatever the seller accepts. The figure that matters is total all-in cost. If the QR scans cleanly at every checkpoint but I miss the second-half cutoff because of security lines or shuttle delays, the market still resolves YES. The bar is obtaining a valid sub-$500 ticket and using it to walk into the stadium. If you're planning to do this yourself, I'm happy to designate you as my "friend" for the purposes of this market. You will be asked to present some proof of having attempted to buy a ticket on the day. If a given matchday choke point ends up restricted to ticket holders only, I/proxy moves to the next-best gathering point where ticketless presence is permitted.
24h Volume: $5. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 7/18/2026.