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Prediction market on manifold. This market resolves YES if Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 (January 1 – December 31, 2027) exceeds 3.4 million tonnes. Settlement is May 31, 2028 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2027 monthly print are well-published before resolution. Context. Rio Tinto is the largest non-China non-Russia primary aluminum producer. 2024 actual production was 3.3 Mt (+1% YoY) following the Kitimat ramp-up and the New Zealand Aluminium Smelters (NZAS) Tiwai Point 20-year power deal plus Sumitomo buyout taking NZAS to 100% Rio ownership. The 3.4 Mt strike for 2027 reflects the post-ramp run-rate. Resolution sources (priority order): Rio Tinto quarterly production results and annual report https://www.riotinto.com/en/invest/financial-news-performance/quarterly-production-results Rio Tinto investor presentations https://www.riotinto.com/en/invest/presentations International Aluminium Institute (IAI) primary aluminum statistics https://international-aluminium.org/statistics/primary-aluminium-production/ Reuters / Bloomberg / Argus aluminum coverage for cross-validation Related markets across the cluster (calendar year 2027) Upstream supply: Indonesia primary aluminum production Indonesia alumina capacity China alumina production Guinea bauxite exports Producers (CY2027): Alcoa Century Chalco EGA Hindalco Hongqiao Norsk Hydro Rusal Vedanta Electricity hubs (CY2027): MISO Indiana Hub Nord Pool OMIE Spain Vic NEM WA SWIS Same market, other calendar year: Rio Tinto CY2028
24h Volume: $12. Liquidity: $10,000. Resolves: 5/31/2028.