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Prediction market on manifold. https://1stproof.org/ Resolves to the best score that an AI model yields on the 1st Proof benchmark's second batch. They will release ten (more) math questions, based on open research questions from top mathematicians. Previous round resolved to my best judgment, since there were some slight disputes as to the best score, but miraculously this was without controversy! This round should be easier to adjudicate as I think the 1stproof org will grade their own benchmark and publish the results in June. If the questions are graded with partial scores, I will resolve with PROB to the two nearest integers. So, for example, if the answer is 7.8, that would resolve 20% to 7 and 80% to 8. I promise this makes sense and is normal. I will not bet on this market, so I can be an unbiased judge. I may consult with leading mathematicians (if I can find them). I will probably extend the market until just before the results are released.
24h Volume: $1. Liquidity: $1,100. Resolves: 6/1/2026.