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Prediction market on manifold. Resolution criteria A market option will resolve to "Yes" if the market capitalization of SpaceX (ticker: SPCX) at the close of the first trading day following the expiration of the initial post-IPO lock-up period is within a specific range, and "No" otherwise. Source of Truth: The market capitalization will be determined based on the official closing share price on the Nasdaq exchange on the day the lock-up period expires. This data can be verified via standard financial platforms such as Google Finance, Yahoo Finance, or the Nasdaq official website. Lock-up Period: The resolution date is defined as the first market trading day after lock-up restrictions for the primary group of insiders/employees permanently end. If the lock-up expiration falls on a weekend or market holiday, it will resolve on the next business day. Background SpaceX has announced plans for an initial public offering (IPO) expected in mid-2026, with shares anticipated to trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol SPCX. Following standard IPO practices, SpaceX is expected to implement a lock-up period—typically lasting 90 to 180 days—during which early investors, executives, and employees are restricted from selling their shares. While IPO valuations have been reported in the range of $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion, the actual market capitalization is subject to significant volatility and investor demand upon public listing. The lock-up expiration is a critical financial event, as it marks the first time a larger volume of insider shares may become eligible for sale, which can exert downward pressure on the stock price. Traders should monitor official SEC filings and company announcements for the exact lock-up duration and expiration date. This description was generated by AI. Update 2026-05-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The resolution will track the price when most employees/insiders are able to sell shares without restriction, i.e., the first trading day after the primary lock-up period for the largest group of insiders/employees expires.
Liquidity: $1,100. Resolves: 1/1/2027.