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Prediction market on manifold. I hold a general view that posting on the internet is good in many regards. To this end, I am considering starting to use twitter. Resolution Criteria: I will mark the day I start posting on twitter; at the 3-month mark, I'll self-resolve based on whether, on reflection, I judge consistent tweeting to have been net positive for my career and/or intellectual development. Some considerations I expect to weigh: Whether tweeting produced conversations, connections, or opportunities I value Whether the time/attention cost are roughly, under loose estimation, worthy of the gains Whether it shifted my writing or thinking in directions I endorse on reflection If I never start using Twitter before the end of 2026, the market resolves N/A. If I cannot come to a clear conclusion of "net positive" — e.g., I can only conclude something like "eh, it was low-cost anyway" — the market resolves NO. The judgement will yield towards genuine positive judgment, rather than absence of clear harm. I acknowledge that the resolution criteria is vague, but I commit to resolving the market in good faith.
24h Volume: $15. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/1/2027.