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Prediction market on manifold. Elon Musk predicts: "So any given solar panel can do about five times more power in space than on the ground. You also avoid the cost of having batteries to carry you through the night. It’s actually much cheaper to do in space. My prediction is that it will be by far the cheapest place to put AI. It will be space in 36 months or less. Maybe 30 months." Resolve to YES if this is true by the end of February 2029. Resolves to NO if it is not. If the result is not clear to me, this will be evaluated by asking the best-of-three judgment of a panel of the most advanced AIs available at the time from Anthropic, OpenAI and Google, based on the above description and asking for a resolution. (I realize some people do not like that resolution mechanism but I need to avoid getting bogged down in defining terms and edge cases here.)
24h Volume: $50. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 2/28/2029.