Loading
Prediction market on manifold. Resolution From worldsteel country breakdowns: Let WORLD_2024, CHINA_2024, WORLD_2026, CHINA_2026 be crude steel totals in 2024 and 2026. Define EXCHINA_2024 = WORLD_2024 − CHINA_2024; EXCHINA_2026 = WORLD_2026 − CHINA_2026. YES if EXCHINA_2026 / EXCHINA_2024 ≥ 1.08, otherwise NO. I'll search for current information about global crude steel production to provide context for this market.#### Resolution criteria Total world crude steel production was 1,882.6 Mt in 2024. Resolution uses data from the World Steel Association (worldsteel) country breakdowns. Calculate: EXCHINA_2024 = WORLD_2024 − CHINA_2024 EXCHINA_2026 = WORLD_2026 − CHINA_2026 Market resolves YES if EXCHINA_2026 / EXCHINA_2024 ≥ 1.08, otherwise NO. Data source: worldsteel Steel Data Viewer (free access to annual country totals) Background China accounted for 54% of world steel production in 2023. This market tests whether non-Chinese producers can achieve meaningful growth relative to their 2024 baseline. India is the 2nd leading producer of iron and steel industries. The 8% threshold represents a significant acceleration from recent trends, as global crude steel production totalled 954.6 million tonnes in the first half of 2024 and was unchanged from January-June 2023. Considerations The resolution depends entirely on official worldsteel annual data, which is typically released in the first half of the following year. If worldsteel methodology changes or data becomes unavailable, the creator will resolve based on the most recent official figures from the World Steel Association.
24h Volume: $10. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 8/11/2027.