What combination of parties will form executive government after the next Australian federal election?

Prediction market on manifold. Resolution criteria This market will resolve to the party or coalition of parties that forms executive government following the next general election for the Australian House of Representatives. For the purpose of this market, a party is in executive government if at least one of its members holds a ministerial portfolio in the first ministry list published after the election. Clarifications For the purpose of this market, an assistant minister does not hold a ministerial portfolio. It is likely that a combination of parties forming executive government will have a majority of seats in the House of Representatives and a coalition agreement of some kind. These are not requirements of this market, however. Independent MPs will be ignored for the purpose of this market. For example, if Andrew Wilkie (Independent) were to hold a ministerial portfolio under a Labor executive government, the market would resolve 'Labor'. For the purpose of this market, the Liberal National Party of Queensland is not a distinct party; its members are Liberals or Nationals.

24h Volume: $1.824. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 5/23/2028.