Will Anthropic go public NOT via an IPO?

Prediction market on manifold. Background Anthropic is a major AI developer (Claude family of models) that has discussed public-market options amid large private funding rounds and reported preparation with advisors. Media reports in late 2025 describe the company engaging counsel and banks and weighing an IPO, while Anthropic spokespeople have said no final decision or timing has been made. “Going public” could mean multiple routes beyond a traditional registered IPO — e.g., direct listing, SPAC merger (de-SPAC), or sale/merger into an existing public company — any of which would result in Anthropic’s equity being listed and tradable on U.S. or non‑U.S. public exchanges without a conventional underwritten IPO process. Question (short description) Will Anthropic become a publicly listed company through a non‑IPO route (direct listing, SPAC/de‑SPAC merger, or merger/going‑public via a public company acquisition) by 11:59:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026? Target company: Anthropic PBC (or any legal entity whose equity represents Anthropic’s primary AI business/operating entity). Non‑IPO routes included: direct listing, SPAC merger (including reverse merger into a blank‑check company and completion of de‑SPAC transaction), or merger/acquisition that results in Anthropic equity being listed and publicly tradable (e.g., merger into a publicly traded company that issues Anthropic equity to public markets). Non‑IPO routes excluded: a traditional underwritten registered IPO (Form S‑1 or equivalent primary public offering managed by underwriters). Secondary listings, debt issuances, or sale of a minority stake to a public company that does not result in Anthropic equity being publicly listed are excluded. Resolution criteria (binary: YES / NO) Resolve YES if, on or before 2026‑12‑31 23:59:59 UTC, there is verifiable public evidence that Anthropic’s equity (or equity of the legal entity representing Anthropic’s primary AI business) became listed and tradable on any public exchange as a result of one of the non‑IPO routes defined above. Acceptable evidence (any one): Exchange notice or listing announcement from a recognized public exchange (e.g., NASDAQ, NYSE, LSE, HKEX, Euronext) stating Anthropic (or the named listed vehicle representing Anthropic) is listed and the method is a direct listing, SPAC/de‑SPAC, or merger listing; OR Filing with a securities regulator (e.g., SEC Form 8‑K, 6‑K, S‑4/A, or other local regulator filings) explicitly showing completion of a SPAC/de‑SPAC transaction, direct listing, or merger that results in Anthropic equity becoming publicly listed and traded; OR A definitive press release or regulatory announcement from Anthropic and the counterparty (SPAC sponsor, exchange, or acquiring public company) confirming completion of the non‑IPO transaction and that Anthropic equity is listed and available for public trading, corroborated by at least one independent reputable financial news source (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg, WSJ, FT, CNBC). Resolve NO if, by 2026‑12‑31 23:59:59 UTC, none of the above evidence exists and Anthropic has not completed a non‑IPO route to become publicly listed. If Anthropic goes public via a traditional underwritten IPO (Form S‑1 primary IPO) by the deadline, resolve NO. Notes and edge cases (short) If Anthropic completes a SPAC deal that merely files paperwork but is later abandoned before shares trade publicly, do not resolve YES until shares are actually listed and tradable. If Anthropic’s business is folded into a public company that issues no distinct Anthropic equity or ticker (pure asset sale for cash or stock of the acquirer without listed Anthropic equity), resolve NO. If multiple corporate entities or name changes are involved, resolution follows substance over form: if the publicly tradable equity represents Anthropic’s continuing primary AI business, it counts.

24h Volume: $75. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/1/2027.