Will Miles Brundage win his bet with Gary Marcus?

Prediction market on manifold. Miles Brundage (former head of policy research at OpenAI) and Gary Marcus (NYU neuroscientist) have made a public bet about AI progress... Details on Gary Marcus's Substack. This market resolves however Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage resolve their wager. Related Links https://milesbrundage.substack.com/p/times-up-for-ai-policy (article that prompted Gary Marcus to challenge Miles Brundage to a wager) https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/superhuman-agi-is-not-nigh (older post laying out Gary Marcus's AGI timelines) https://x.com/Miles_Brundage/status/1870642568121462791 (original hashing out of the wager) https://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/1873766399618785646 (summary of the wager) https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/where-will-ai-be-at-the-end-of-2027 (official specification of the wager) https://thezvi.substack.com/p/ai-97-4?open=false#%C2%A7wanna-bet https://manifold.markets/LovkushAgarwal/possible-outcomes-of-the-bet-on-ai

24h Volume: $1,130.126. Liquidity: $5,200. Resolves: 1/1/2028.