Conditional on at least 5 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
Prediction market on manifold. The condition is met if we ever cross the threshold, even if global temperatures are later brought below it. The resolution criterion is met if world population ever dips below 1 billion for any length of time before 2100. Similar markets for various amounts of warming: 2 degrees 3 degrees 5 degrees 8 degrees 10 degrees 15 degrees
24h Volume: $110. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/1/2100.