2026 California Insurance Commissioner election

Prediction market on manifold. Resolution criteria This market will resolve to the candidate who is officially certified as the winner of the 2026 California Insurance Commissioner election by the California Secretary of State. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. The resolution will be based on the official final election results published by the California Secretary of State's Office. If the election is canceled or the office remains vacant for any reason, the market will resolve N/A. Background The 2026 California Insurance Commissioner election is a high-profile contest to succeed incumbent Ricardo Lara, who is term-limited and ineligible for re-election. The election follows a top-two nonpartisan primary system held on June 2, 2026, where all candidates appeared on the same ballot, with the top two finishers advancing to the November general election. The race has gained significant attention due to the state's volatile home insurance market, which has been impacted by recent, destructive wildfires and the subsequent withdrawal or reduction of coverage by many insurance providers. Candidates have proposed various strategies to stabilize the market, including public-private partnerships, stricter rate filing reviews, and enhanced consumer protections. Key candidates in the 2026 cycle include Ben Allen (D), Steven Bradford (D), Jane Kim (D), Patrick Wolff (D), Stacy Korsgaden (R), Robert Howell (R), and others.

24h Volume: $331. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 11/3/2026.