When will Starship reach orbit?

Prediction market on manifold. Resolution criteria This market resolves to the date (UTC) on which a SpaceX Starship vehicle successfully reaches Earth orbit for the first time. For the purpose of this market, Achieving Earth orbit means the Starship upper stage (Ship) completes at least one full, uninterrupted revolution around Earth on a trajectory where its perigee remains above the sensible atmosphere (roughly 100 km altitude), such that it could continue orbiting without further propulsion. A suborbital trajectory that reenters before completing one full orbit — even if it reaches orbital altitude and velocity briefly — does not count. The orbit does not need to be circular, long-lived, or carry any particular payload; what matters is that the vehicle demonstrably enters a closed (or near-closed) elliptical path around the Earth and sustains it for at least one complete revolution. High-apogee suborbital hops, intentional deorbit-before-one-revolution test profiles, and breakup during ascent do not count. As confirmed by official SpaceX statements, flight telemetry, or independent tracking by organizations such as Space-Track (https://www.space-track.org/) or the U.S. Space Command. The market resolves upon the earliest date of a confirmed successful orbital insertion. Background Starship, developed by SpaceX, is a fully reusable, two-stage super heavy-lift launch vehicle designed to carry crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Unlike previous flight tests that focused on suborbital trajectories, achieving orbit requires the vehicle to reach orbital velocity after the Super Heavy booster separates and the Starship upper stage conducts its own engine burn. Progress toward this milestone is tracked via official SpaceX mission updates and FAA launch license filings. This description was generated by AI then edited by @ae.

24h Volume: $260. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/1/2033.