Why did Jeju Air flight 2216 crash?

Prediction market on manifold. Background: https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/29/south-korea-plane-crash-casualties-reported-after-jeju-air-flight-veers-off-runway-at-muan-airport-live-updates So far, bird strike and weather conditions have been suggested as causes, although the maintenance record is also being checked. Suggestions welcome on resolution, otherwise I'll resolve to the causes identified in an AP or FT article after the investigation is complete. I'll extend resolution if investigation is ongoing. I won't trade this question. In particular, for "design issue" I'd expect this to be identified as a class of bird strike that should normally be survivable. Update 2024-29-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Not a single option market: Resolve YES for options that are significant factors. Unknown: Resolve as NO across the board. Update 2025-02-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Design Issue Clarification Design issue only applies to the design of the plane, not the airport. If a report specifically highlights an airport design problem (for example, using language that refers to the airport layout or inadequate airport standards), then it may be considered separately. In the absence of such specific language regarding the airport, any issues related to design should be resolved only as they pertain to the plane.

24h Volume: $622.981. Liquidity: $1,100. Resolves: 6/30/2026.