Will any U.S. state or EU member state restrict large-scale data center grid connections before September 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. The rapid expansion of AI infrastructure has placed unprecedented pressure on electricity grids across the United States and Europe. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) [projected in January 2026](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/Jan26.pdf) that electricity demand growth will accelerate significantly, with large computing facilities identified as a primary driver. The U.S. Department of Energy has [similarly identified data centers](https://www.energy.gov/oe/clean-energy-resources-meet-data-center-electricity-demand) as a critical short-term demand factor. In Europe, grid connection queues [have reached record lengths](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/04/denmark-data-centers-moratorium-grid-pause-power-demand.html) in Ireland, the Netherlands, and Denmark — jurisdictions that have previously imposed informal or formal restrictions on new data center connections. Ireland's EirGrid and the Dutch transmission operator TenneT have both taken administrative action to limit new connections in recent years, establishing a precedent base rate for this type of regulatory action. As of May 2026, several U.S. states including Virginia, Texas, and Georgia — home to the [largest data center concentrations](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/04/13/most-new-data-centers-in-the-us-are-coming-to-rural-areas/) in the country — are actively reviewing grid capacity allocation for high-load facilities.

Resolves: 9/2/2026.