Next airline to default

Prediction market on manifold. Next airline to default from this fixed list only. All non-listed airlines are irrelevant. No airlines will be added to this list. When an airline defaults, we will settle and start a new market. Resolution criteria This market resolves to the first airline from the provided list to file for bankruptcy or enter formal insolvency proceedings. Resolution will be determined by official bankruptcy filings or insolvency declarations from relevant regulatory authorities (e.g., U.S. Bankruptcy Court for U.S. carriers, national insolvency courts for international carriers). The market resolves to "Other" on December 31, 2029 if none of the listed airlines defaults by that date. Only defaults by the specifically listed airlines count; defaults by other carriers are irrelevant to this market. Background The airline industry experienced a 3.7% default rate in 2024, compared to a historical average of 3.4% annually since 1990. In 2025, multiple airlines ceased operations, including Scandinavian carriers Play and Braathens Aviation, as well as Ravn Alaska, Air Belgium, and SKS Airways. Spirit Airlines filed for bankruptcy in late 2024 and exited Chapter 11 in March 2025 after equitizing $795 million in debt and securing a $350 million investment. Several airlines filing for bankruptcy have cited COVID-19-related financial issues, with many still working to repay debt accumulated during the pandemic. Considerations The listed airlines vary significantly in financial stability and market position. Major carriers like American Airlines and Delta dominate with extensive global networks but face higher operating costs, while low-cost carriers like Spirit and Frontier operate on razor-thin margins and are particularly vulnerable to financial shocks. North American ultra-low-cost carriers face negative margins, while Allegiant and Frontier have outperformed through fleet modernization and cost discipline. Note that bankruptcy filing (Chapter 11) differs from complete operational failure; some airlines may restructure and continue operations.

24h Volume: $900. Liquidity: $28,000. Resolves: 12/20/2029.