Loading
Prediction market on manifold. The battlefield is an Olympic sized swimming pool that is 6 feet deep. A fully grown polar bear (9 feet tall) faces off against a fully grown female Great White Shark. At market close, I will create a poll that lasts for 1 week and use that for question resolution. A tie will resolve to 50%. For context, this question is a long running question from the Chasing Scratch golf podcast. They have posed this question to many over the years and it seems to be very split but most people firmly believe their side is right. Make your arguments in the comments, I'm curious to see what Manifold thinks. Update 2026-05-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The Great White Shark in this market is considered to be a fully grown female (females are larger than males). This will be specified on the poll question at resolution. Update 2026-05-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The fight is to the death — the bear will not attempt to leave the pool Trading will be disabled after the poll drops at market close; the poll will run for 1 week and its results will determine resolution Update 2026-06-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Both animals fight with aggression (each immediately sees the other as a threat) but with natural intelligence/strategy typical of their species — neither blindly rushes the other. Neither animal will attempt to flee the pool. Update 2026-06-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The polar bear will not attempt to leave the pool — leaving the pool is not an option for the bear.
24h Volume: $2,815.752. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 6/2/2026.