Will a state actor or other group succeed at stealing GPT-4 model weights by the end of 2026?

Prediction market on manifold. Resolves YES if there is credible evidence (by OpenAI or others) that an actor external to OpenAI has succeeded in illicitly gaining access to GPT-4 weights. The evidence doesn't have to be 100% conclusive, but e.g. a rumor wouldn't count. Resolves NO if there is no evidence that anyone has succeeded at stealing GPT-4 weights by the end of 2026. Not sufficient to resolve YES:: If model weights are leaked by a disgruntled employee, but there is no reason to suspect coordinated action by any group. Someone steals weights of a non-GPT-4 frontier model, or the weights of GPT-5

24h Volume: $50. Liquidity: $1,310.5. Resolves: 12/31/2026.