Will there be a real estate crash in the US in 2026?

Prediction market on manifold. Fred Harrison has a theory called the "18 year land cycle", and claims to have correctly predicted the housing crash in 2008 and one in the 1990s: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/property/article-12446057/Why-house-prices-set-soar-two-years-CRASH-claims-expert-accurately-predicted-property-market-collapse-2008-1990s.html He's currently predicting we'll see a major real estate crash in 2026. This market resolves YES if three conditions are held: Real estate prices peak in 2026 Real estate prices at the end of 2026 are below the peak Real estate prices by the end of 2027 have declined by at least 15% relative to the 2026 peak The index we will use to define "real estate prices" is case-shiller: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA [link preview]

24h Volume: $15. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/1/2028.