Is it (mostly) the phones?

Prediction market on manifold. it = "worsening teenage / young adult mental health in the anglosphere since ~2010" Background reading: Some blog posts: Noah Smith: Honestly, it's probably the phones Zvi Mowshowitz: The Kids Are Not Okay Richard Hanania: How I Changed My Mind on Social Media and Teen Depression Haidt, J., & Twenge, J. (ongoing). Social media and mental health: A collaborative review (massive, open, non-systematic review of the scientific literature) Jean Twenge: Have smartphones destroyed a generation? (old op-ed) Orben & Przybylski (2019): The association between adolescent well-being and digital technology use (skeptical review paper) Resolves to my subjective probability that smartphones / social media use explain >50% of the increase in mental health issues among US teenagers / young adults (measured in DALYs and/or WELLBYs) since the first iPhone came out.

24h Volume: $20. Liquidity: $2,115. Resolves: 12/31/2029.