Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?

Prediction market on manifold. Before betting, I recommend reading the scoring methodology page. It seems to be deliberately designed to produce lower scores: ARC-AGI-3 Scoring Methodology - ARC-AGI-3 Docs. Scoring is based on the official leaderboard. As of market creation, the top score is around 0.3%: [image]

24h Volume: $100. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2026.