Will the U.S. Supreme Court rule in favor of Monsanto in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell?

Prediction market on metaculus. On April 4, 2025, Monsanto Company, a subsidiary of Bayer AG, filed a petition for a writ of certiorari with the U.S. Supreme Court in the case [Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell](https://law.justia.com/cases/missouri/court-of-appeals/2025/ed112410.html). The case arises from a Missouri state court decision where a jury [awarded](https://blog.cvn.com/1.25m-verdict-in-zero-offer-case-breaks-monsantos-roundup-trial-winning-streak) \$1.25 million in damages to John L. Durnell, who alleged that exposure to Monsanto's glyphosate-based herbicide, Roundup, caused his non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Monsanto's [petition](https://content.presspage.com/uploads/2809/4203e574-9a0c-49ee-9476-8ba63ba6e424/4.4.2025monsantov.durnellcertpetition.pdf?10000) argued that the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) preempts state-law failure-to-warn claims, especially since the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has approved Roundup's labeling without a cancer warning. The petition highlighted a split among federal appellate courts on this preemption issue, noting that while the Third Circuit has held that FIFRA preempts such state-law claims, the Ninth and Eleventh Circuits have reached the opposite conclusion. On January 16, 2026, the Supreme Court [agreed to hear the case](https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/docketfiles/html/public/24-1068.html). The Court will decide whether federal pesticide law prevents plaintiffs from bringing state-law claims that Roundup should have included a cancer warning, given that EPA did not require such a warning. Merits briefing has since been completed. The United States filed an [amicus brief supporting Monsanto](https://www.justice.gov/d9/2026-03/24-1068_monsanto_tsac.pdf), arguing that FIFRA preempts Durnell’s failure-to-warn claim, and the Court granted the Solicitor General’s request to participate in oral argument. The case was argued on April 27, 2026, with Paul Clement arguing for Monsanto, Sarah Harris for the United States, and Ashley Keller for Durnell. As of May 28, 2026, the Court has not issued a decision.

Resolves: 7/15/2026.