Will Missouri's 2026 Amendment 3 pass, repealing the 2024 abortion-rights protections?

Prediction market on metaculus. On November 5, 2024, Missouri voters approved [Amendment 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Missouri_Amendment_3) (the "Right to Reproductive Freedom Initiative") by roughly 52% to 48%, adding Article I, Section 36 to the state constitution and establishing a fundamental right to reproductive freedom, including abortion through fetal viability. Missouri was the first state to roll back a pre-Dobbs near-total abortion ban via citizen initiative. In May 2025, the Missouri General Assembly [passed House Joint Resolution 73](https://www.plannedparenthoodaction.org/planned-parenthood-great-plains-votes/press-releases/anti-abortion-lawmakers-in-the-missouri-house-approve-measure-to-overturn-the-will-of-the-voters-and-ban-abortion), referring a new constitutional amendment to the November 3, 2026 ballot. If approved, the 2026 Amendment 3 would: * Repeal Article I, Section 36 (the 2024 amendment); * Prohibit abortion except in cases of medical emergency, fetal anomaly, or rape and incest (the latter only up to 12 weeks' gestation); * Require parental or guardian consent for minors seeking abortion; * Prohibit gender-affirming medical care for minors (already barred under SB 49 until August 2027). The "Yes on 3" campaign [is led](https://missouriindependent.com/2026/03/30/missouri-abortion-amendment-3-campaign-effort-2026/) by the Her Health, Her Future PAC, with Missouri First Lady Claudia Kehoe as treasurer and backing from Governor Mike Kehoe and Republican legislative leadership. The opposition campaign, Stop the Ban, includes Planned Parenthood, the ACLU of Missouri, and Abortion Action Missouri. Missouri constitutional amendments referred by the legislature require a simple statewide majority of votes cast on the measure to pass.

Resolves: 11/4/2026.