Best METR 50% Time Horizon in 2026

Prediction market on manifold. See https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/ Resolves to the longest 50% Time Horizon, as measured by METR, for any AI system, by the end of 2026. Answers that are passed early can be resolved early. IMPORTANT: Resolves to all thresholds exceeded, not just to the highest one that applies. eg for a 11 hour time horizon, ">10h" resolves yes, but so does >6h and >8h

24h Volume: $53.436. Liquidity: $2,800. Resolves: 12/31/2026.